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Billed as the best race of the entire Cheltenham Festival our strongest bet of the week runs in the Queen Mother Champion Chase
Now this wasn’t an easy decision and one I’ve been playing over in my mind for a few weeks. I’d go as far to say that I’m actually having sleepless nights over this race but when all is said and done my final decision doesn’t change and if anything it’s getting stronger as the race itself approaches.
Why not Altior?
As you know Altior is a horse we’ve had great allegiance to ever since he powered up the Cheltenham hill to lower the colours of Min in the Supreme Novice Hurdle back in 2016. Since then he hasn’t looked back winning a staggering 20 of 21 races over jumps. He has so much talent and that turn of foot has got him out of trouble many times. It wasn’t easy opposing him but for me he’s been on the decline since winning this race last year. He looked beat coming up the hill but somehow showed tremendous heart to get back up and beat Politologue. That sort of performance won’t be good enough to win this year, nowhere near, and he hasn’t done much since to make me think he will better it. He looked a deflated horse after getting outstayed by Cyrname at Ascot. That horse hasn’t looked the same since so maybe it took more out the pair than we think? Of course Altior bounced back in the Game Spirit at Newbury last time but his preparation has been far from ideal and I think he is priced up on what he has achieved in the past rather than this season. My heart wants to see him defend his crown but in this game it’s usually your head that wins you money so I have to take him on, as much as it hurts.
Why not Chacun Pour Soi?
Given how lightly raced he is it’s hard to be massively against him while it’s hard to be over confident on him winning which makes it even more amusing when I see people on Twitter saying ‘he can’t be beat’ etc and ‘he’s the best horse Mullins has ever trained’ etc. We had all this before with Pont Alexandre and he was beaten 8 and a half lengths by The New One. While I appreciate that was a Novice Hurdle and this is a Champion Chase it’s a theme that rings similar and I just don’t think he’s backed up the price he is in the market with form. Now I know you’ll be screaming as your screen saying he beat Defi Du Seuil at Punchestown but for me the latter was coming to the end of a long season, one where he had been on the go since November. That was nowhere near the horse we have now and I think he’s priced up on that one piece of form alone. He was beaten by A Plus Yard on return having travelled best and did put that right winning at Leopardstown but that race fell apart and Min is 12/1 for this so he’ll need a lot more to justify his position in the market. I’m just not sold and my doubts over him only strengthen my stance towards the selection.
Whoosh! Here comes the NAP
Philip Hobbs heads into Cheltenham with a really strong team and his leading hope will be stablestar DEFI DU SEUIL in the Champion Chase. For me he has been campaigned excellently and comes here with confidence higher than it’s ever been before, winning all 3 races two of which Grade 1’s. He quickened up bravely between horses to win on return at Cheltenham before showing marked improvement to win the Tingle Creek, just idling in the closing stages to allow Un De Sceaux to come back to within a neck. He then swept past that rival to win the Clarence House and for me stamped himself as the best two mile chaser in the division. He has everything you want in a horse and the scary thing is could probably improve again being just a 7yo. He is so relaxed in the prelims and looks to have push-button speed under pressure. He is versatile regarding ground and the stronger pace in the race the better. I have no doubt in my mind he’ll reverse that form with Chacun Pour Soi and for me the 2/1 looks very generous. I can’t see him being that price on the day and actually think he goes off favourite. Whatever scenario that occurs he has it covered in my mind. I think in terms of chance and price he rates the best bet of the week so fingers crossed you’ll be joining us to cheer him home under Geraghty!
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Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
Cheltenham Wednesday 3.30 Defi Du Seuil (best price 2/1)
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