FOOTBALL TIPS
Cheltenham Day 3 Tips
No odds-on favourites on day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival and a really competitive days racing ahead. My NAP of the Cheltenham Festival runs in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle so fingers crossed she can maintain her unbeaten streak.
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Paul Nicholls obviously won this last year with Stage Star and he sends Ginny’s Destiny this time who is on a four-timer after recording 3 wins at this track through the winter. He is a good horse but this is a tougher test again and I’m fairly convinced GREY DAWNING has his measure before ploughing through the last and losing all momentum. He still nearly got back up but the line just came too soon. He quickly put that right winning by an emphatic 14 lengths at Warwick and looks the most solid option in here. His win over Gaillard Du Mesnil at Haydock earlier in the season was impressive and he has plenty going for him.
Ginny’s Destiny is certainly there with a chance but those front-running tactics might be harder to pull off here especially if Facile Vega want to go off the front. The one I fear most is Iroko as he was really impressive hacking up at Warwick but then suffered a setback. My issue with him is he was initially ruled out the Festival but has obviously recovered much quicker than they thought he would. Hard to know if he is going to be in the same form but obviously if he is strong in the betting then I’d definitely fear him.
With the extra places available it is definitely worth backing at least 2 in the Pertemps. GABBYS CROSS definitely catches the eye off a mark of 133. He was back to form the last twice finishing second to Buddy One at Galway and then going down just a length and a half at Punchestown. Henry De Bromhead has put him away since with this race the target and with his horses running well I can see him taking a big hand in the finish here. He has won fresh in the past so fitness won’t be an issue and he is a nice each way price.
The other one I’ve got my eye on is LE MILOS for Dan and Harry Skelton. The handicapper has given this horse a chance dropping him 4lb following that Ascot disappointment but he has been lightly raced in recent times and now back down to a mark of 142 if he can rediscover some of his old form he would have a decent chance of getting involved. Plenty of dangers in a race like this probably headed by the favourite Cleatus Poolaw who is very unexposed but don’t rule out a stablemate to that horse in Farouk D’alene either with the 7lb claimer booked.
Last years winner Envoi Allen is back to defend his crown and he must be respected following a neck second to Gerri Colombe when last seen. He has run 5 times at this track winning 3 and freshened up will give it a go but he is a 10yo now and the trends are strongly against him. I have decided to give STAGE STAR another chance despite pulling up here back in January. The ground was very testing that day and he had a big weight to carry. He was impressive winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup before that and if returning to that form would be a danger to all. The ground should be drying out all the time which is also in his favour.
Capodanno was back to his best staying on well to win here back in January and if building on that could emerge as the danger. Protektorat hasn’t done much wrong this season and again ran creditably when third to Shishkin at Newbury. I think he might run well and is quite a big price so could be worth an each way saver depending on how you’re approaching the race.
I’m really looking forward to the Stayers this year. Teahupoo probably deservedly holds favouritism after missing an agonising nose in this last year to Sire Du Berlais but I can’t help but think 15/8 is on the short side. I much prefer CRAMBO for Fergal O’Brien. This horse has impressed since going up in trip running a big race in defeat when third at Haydock back in November. He was given too much to do on that occasion but came home well to grab a place behind Slate Lane and Fine Margin which is solid form. He made no mistake in the Long Walk when last seen showing a good attitude to fend off Paisley Park and co. He will be suited by this test and with further improvement to come looks the value.
Noble Yeats shaped well when second to Sa Majeste on reappearance before improving to beat Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle at this track when last seen. He obviously stays well and is entitled to get involved. Flooring Porter has obviously won this twice before and was a good fourth in it last year so also shouldn’t be ruled out.
Sometimes horses are overbet in handicaps and I can see why some will see the price of CREBILLY and want to take him on. For me he is the most likely winner of this race so even at the current odds of 4/1 I make him a play. He is still unexposed having only had 3 starts over fences and he confirmed the initial promise he had shown to win at Exeter last month. He really found another gear away from the last and was nicely on top at the finish. An opening mark of 140 could easily underestimate him now handicapping and I think he’ll take a lot of beating.
The other one I want to chance is RIAAN for Gordon Elliott. I ended up backing this horse at 50/1 at the Dublin Racing Festival last month and he ran a very good race to finish second to Heart Wood. The winner was in a different league in the end but he kept on well when headed and there were one or two useful individuals in behind. He is 5lb higher and the jockey can only claim 3lb this time but he should have more to come over fences and he is overpriced again at around 20/1 at the time of writing. Theatre Man will be a danger if his jumping holds up and In Excelsis Deo also catches the eye despite unseating latest.
The stable confidence behind BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD is infectious and I can’t wait to see if she can extend her unbeaten streak at Cheltenham. She has answered every call so far winning both starts in bumpers before making it a perfect 3-3 over hurdles at Navan when last seen a month ago. She travels so well through her races and finds tons at the business end so I think she’ll be extremely difficult to beat here. She ticks all the trends which notably includes winning a Graded race and with further improvement to come she appeals as my strongest bet of the week.
Obviously Willie Mullins has won this with some nice types down the years and he has the main danger in the betting with Jade De Grugy. She is also unbeaten having won both starts to date and she was impressive at Fairyhouse when last seen. I’m not sure she has beaten a great deal though and also we haven’t seen her truly tested off the bridle. She is quite keen and I think that might make her vulnerable up the hill. Dysart Enos also has a chance and might even be a greater threat impressing again when winning at Doncaster. This will require another career best though and even then it might not be enough.
I am in good shape for this race as I took 9/2 about INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN before his stablemate Perceval Legallois was taken out. Firm Footings also came out the race and they were the second and third favourite so the price somewhat collapsed on the selection since. It is easy to see why he is popular as he has been running behind graded horses all season. He was only midfield at the DRF when last seen but this significant step up in trip should bring out the best in him. His second to Imagine on reappearance was eye-catching and he could have plenty in hand here off a mark of just 145.
Plenty of dangers as always in these competitive handicaps and you’d have to give last years winner ANGELS DAWN another shout. She gamely beat Stumptown last year and even 11lb higher would have a chance after catching the eye to finish third at Gowran back in January. She’ll be spot on for this and will give her running. Amirite for Henry de Bromhead is another one to consider despite looking a bit one paced at Leopardstown when last seen.
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