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Aintree Day 3 Tips

Another fascinating day ahead at Aintree with expensive purchase Caldwell Potter finally hitting the racecourse in the Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle. Paul Nicholls will be hoping for a perfect start with him and he arrives with a tall reputation. Corach Rambler is looking to emulate Tiger Roll in the big one and win the Grand National back-to-back. Several who ran last year oppose again in what looks a thrilling renewal. The Festival caps off with a bumper too where Mister Meggit could be a name to note for the future.

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William Hill Handicap Hurdle
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AINTREE
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13:20 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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10 of the last 11 winners were aged between 6 and 8
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4 of the last 11 winners were favourites
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9 of the last 11 winners carried between 10 stone 9 and 11 stone 6
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8 of the last 11 winners were rated 137 or higher

I know things haven’t worked out for JOHNNYWHOJ since looking so promising at Carlisle back in November last year but it is still relatively early days for him and he comes out well on the trends here. He didn’t show a huge amount when down the field in the Albert Bartlett but this point winner remains unexposed over 3 miles and now handicapping could bounce back. He has a nice weight and has gone under the radar somewhat.

Plenty of dangers in a race like this but favourites don’t do too well usually so look away from the likes of West Balboa and Cuthbert Dibble. Fine Margin pulled up at the DRF but his second to Slate Lane before that was a big run so he could be the main danger.

9
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Johnnywho
Trainer
Jonjo O'Neill
Jockey
Jonjo O'Neill Jr.
15/2
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Form -
1-1448
Age -
7
Weight -
11-4
Draw -
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Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle
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AINTREE
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13:55 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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11 of the past 13 winners were top-or-second-top rated on official BHA Ratings
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Horses rated 150+ are 5-9 since 2011
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20 of the past 26 winners were in the top 2 of the betting
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Only 2 of the past 13 winners returned at odds greater than 5-1

The exciting CALDWELL POTTER looks set to make his debut for this yard here having skipped Cheltenham and I’m confident he is the one to beat. He was impressive for Gordon Elliott winning his last two starts and I think they made the right decision given him more time to strengthen in his frame. He is a horse with plenty of scope and I expect him to take a lot of beating in this. The yard are in good form and have already been amongst the winners so there is lots to like.

I was all over Brighterdaysahead at Cheltenham but she let me down looking a bit one paced in the closing stages. I can see her running well as that form has been boosted with the fourth Jade De Grugy winning since but she might be playing second fiddle once again. Jimmy Du Seuil chased home Ballyburn and Ile Atlantique was just in behind so they are two others to note as well.

2
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Caldwell Potter
Trainer
Paul Nicholls
Jockey
Harry Cobden
2/1
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Form -
8163-211
Age -
6
Weight -
11-7
Draw -
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William Hill Handicap Chase
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AINTREE
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14:30 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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8 of the last 11 winners were aged between 6 and 9
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3 of the last 11 winners were favourites
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9 of the last 11 winners carried between 10 stone 7 and 11 stone 7
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9 of the last 11 winners were rated 137 or higher

That was a massive run in defeat from CREBILLY in the Plate at Cheltenham last month. He went down just a length and a quarter and if the step up in trip here helps him improve again then I’m confident he is the one to beat in this. He has only gone up 3lb so still looks well handicapped on what is just his fifth start over fences. He fits neatly every trend and looks sure to run a big race.

The King Of Ryhope is still unexposed too and looks the danger but will need to run better than he did at Ascot when last seen. Twig ran a massive race chasing home Chianti Classico in the Ultima and looks the biggest danger.

5
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Crebilly
Trainer
Jonjo O'Neill
Jockey
Jonjo O'Neill Jr.
4/1
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Form -
2261-F412
Age -
7
Weight -
11-3
Draw -
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Liverpool Hurdle
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AINTREE
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15:05 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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Stayers’ Hurdle winners are 6-8 since the race became a Grade 1
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18 of the past 19 winners had already won a Grade 1 or Grade 2
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16 of the past 19 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival
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Only 3 of the past 19 winners returned at odds greater than 7-1

Despite CRAMBO failing to lay a glove in the Stayers at Cheltenham last month it wouldn’t surprise me to see him bounce back here. This track seemed to really suit him when he beat Santos Blue here back in October last year and if back to his best he could be a decent price. I know he likes to be switched off early but I just think he got caught too far back in the ground last time so he did have excuses. If back to his best he is a definite player against these.

Flooring Porter chased home Teahupoo in the big one last month so looks the one to beat on recent form. He will have his supporters and is feared most despite being a 9yo now. Hiddenvalley Lake is another one I can see running well as he skipped Cheltenham too but that is a trend that has gone against the winner in this in recent years surprisingly.

4
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Crambo
Trainer
Fergal O'Brien
Jockey
Jonathan Burke
7/1
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Form -
P117-1319
Age -
7
Weight -
11-10
Draw -
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Randox Grand National
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AINTREE
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16:00 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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21 of the past 29 winners were aged 8-10
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15 of the past 27 winners returned at 14-1 or shorter
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8 of the past 16 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival
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Only 1 of the past 27 winners was a 12yo

All eyes with be on Corach Rambler to see if he can achieve greatness by going back-to-back in the race. I know he ran a career best to finish third in the Gold Cup but I don’t see this being as straightforward. 5/1 seems short enough and I’m going to try and oppose and dig out some value. VANILLIER is my main hope for the race this year. I backed this loveable grey last year and he ran a cracker staying on strongly for second behind Corach Rambler. He was beaten 2 and a quarter lengths but gets a swing in the weights this year and could easily go one better. He is a sound jumper who stays the trip so he ticks a lot of boxes and 9/1 seems very fair.

I usually prefer experience in this race but such is the potential of MEETINGOFTHEWATERS I have decided to include him in my selections this year. He looked a horse going places winning at Cork and Leopardstown before unseating at the DRF. He was back to form in a big way chasing home Chianti Classico in the Ultima and looked an out and out galloper in the closing stages. This test will suit him and I think he’ll be seeing it out better than most as long as the occasion doesn’t get too much..

The price has come in now as MR INCREDIBLE was available at 20/1 just a couple of weeks ago. I have unfinished business with this horse as I was on him last year and I thought he was in a lovely rhythm before unfortunately the saddle slipped and the jockey was unseated at Valentines. We have only seen him once since and that was when second to Beauport in the Midlands National. He is another one I’m convinced will ’stay all day’ and if getting a clear round should go close. He comes out particularly well on trends so I think he could be one of the steamers in the race..

Finally I always like to include one at a monster price and this year that horse is CHAMBARD for Venetia Williams. This horse won the Becher here back in December and has a habit of popping up at big prices having also won at the Cheltenham Festival at odds of 40/1 just a couple of years ago. He is a strong traveller who stays the trip so seems a bit overpriced at 100/1. He was hampered by a faller in the Ultima so had excuses and could surprise a few here. Plenty of dangers obviously headed by the favourite but I Am Maximus is another one I could see going well if taking to the National fences as his form ties in with Vanillier.

17
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Vanillier
Trainer
Gavin Patrick Cromwell, Ireland
Jockey
Sean Flanagan
8/1
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Form -
6F22-5502
Age -
9
Weight -
10-12
Draw -
18
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Mr Incredible
Trainer
W. P. Mullins, Ireland
Jockey
B. Hayes
12/1
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Form -
2RP/B23U-2
Age -
8
Weight -
10-11
Draw -
26
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Meetingofthewaters
Trainer
W. P. Mullins, Ireland
Jockey
D. E. Mullins
8/1
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Form -
76-4311U3
Age -
7
Weight -
10-8
Draw -
33
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Chambard
Trainer
Venetia Williams
Jockey
Miss Lucy Turner
66/1
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Form -
U44-21P88
Age -
12
Weight -
10-7
Draw -
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Maghull Novices’ Chase
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AINTREE
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17:00 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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6 of the past 10 winners did not run at the Cheltenham Festival
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Willie Mullins is 2-2 in recent years
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The past 2 winners were owned by JP McManus (won the race 3 times in total)
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Only 1 of the past 25 winners was British-bred

Found A Fifty will likely be sent off a fairly short priced favourite for this but I think the value is HERCULE DU SEUIL for Willie Mullins. This horse has won his last 5 and has skipped Cheltenham to come here fresh for this. Willie Mullins is 2-2 in this race and also owner JP McManus does well in this having won it 3 times in the past too. British runners have a poor record so the likes of Etalon and Libberty Hunter are easy to pass over. He likely has more to come and could prove the answer.

Of the rest Quilixios failed to give his running last month but is surely better than that so if bouncing back could emerge as the danger. Matata can race freely and I wouldn’t want to see him get too much rope either as he ran creditably in the Arkle behind Gaelic Warrior and co.

4
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Hercule Du Seuil
Trainer
W. P. Mullins, Ireland
Jockey
M. P. Walsh
11/2
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Form -
P1-211111
Age -
7
Weight -
11-7
Draw -
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Weatherbys NH Flat Race
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AINTREE
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17:35 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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10 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6
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1 of the last 11 winners were favourites
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7 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the race
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0 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a Graded race

I have been seriously impressed with MISTER MEGGIT so far and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him win this and remain unbeaten. He made an exciting start bolting up by 12 lengths on debut at Carlisle and then had no problem following up at Doncaster crossing the line still on the bridle. This is obviously tougher but he looks a really nice prospect and I’m keen to keep him on side.

Sorceleur cruised home at Taunton making all and if improving again could be an obvious danger. Like always in these events the market can prove informative and Ma Shantou is being nibbled at in the betting. He looked good winning at Huntingdon so could hit the frame.

10
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Mister Meggit
Trainer
Jonjo O'Neill
Jockey
Jonjo O'Neill Jr.
9/4
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Form -
11
Age -
6
Weight -
11-4
Draw -
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