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Cheltenham Festival NAP

The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase or better known as the RSA Chase or the Sun Alliance Chase has always thrown up a smart horse and it has produced Gold Cup winners in the shape of Bobs Worth, Lord Windermere and Don Poli in the past. In recent years it has been won by Champ, Monkfish and L’Homme Presse so that tells you about the calibre of horse needed to win such a good race. It is run on the Old Course and has been a natural stepping stone to the blue-riband event.

With the Turners Chase now axed I thought we’d get a bigger field but perhaps they are running scared. Graded form coming into this novices’ chase appears to be essential, with course form is also understandably a strong pointer. The five previous Brown Advisory Chase winners had all finished either first or second at the Cheltenham Festival 12 months earlier. Willie Mullins also has now trained a record six winners in the race which is two more than Nicky Henderson.

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The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
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Cheltenham
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14:00 - Wednesday
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Trends
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9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7 including the last 4.
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6 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 9 of 12 top 3 in the betting.
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8 of the last 12 won on their last run before the Brown Advisory Novice Chase.
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9 of the last 12 had previously won a Grade 1-3.

Like a lot of races at the Cheltenham Festival trainer Willie Mullins holds the key with the top two in the betting here. BALLYBURN was an awesome winner of the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Cheltenham Festival and he backed that up following up at Punchestown. He was always going to go over fences this season and jumped well en route to making all on chase debut at Punchestown back in November. A combination of faster ground and 2 miles seemed to catch him out at Kempton but I didn’t see that run as bad as some. He bumped into Sir Gino who looks a monster himself and the trip was just way too sharp. Back up in distance he looked much better at Leopardstown last month and I loved how good he looked away from the last. He will be spot on for this now and is hard to oppose.

I expect him to relish stretching out beyond 3 miles for the first time and I see him as a future Gold Cup contender (for which he is a 12/1 chance best price). Stablemate Dancing City is a nice horse himself but he would need the ground much softer to have a chance. The pair have met before albeit in a bumper at Punchestown where Ballyburn was 6 lengths too strong. Obviously you can’t take that literally but Ballyburn does seem to hold a class-edge on his stablemate. Better Days Ahead shouldn’t be discounted either as he was beaten a head by Croke Park and that form ties in with Ballyburn albeit he would be held on that. I think however you break this down there is only one winner and I think it’ll be by a wide margin as well.

1
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Ballyburn
Trainer
Willie Mullins
11/10
Add To Bet Slip
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Form -
11-2111-1-121
Age -
7
Weight -
11-7
Draw -
-
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