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Aintree Day 2 Tips

Roll on Day 2! The Grade 1s keep on coming as Aintree continues to deliver. The weather has been incredible and hopefully we can keep the winners coming before the big one tomorrow. Jonbon will be looking to put things right in the Melling Chase and Romeo Coolio is out to frank the Supreme form in the Top Novices’ Hurdle.

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Mildmay Novices’ Chase
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AINTREE
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13:45 - FRIDAY
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Trends
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21 of the last 21 winners have returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
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18 of the last 21 winners aged 7 or younger
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10 of the last 21 winners were favourites
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11 of the last 13 winners were the BHA top-rated first and second

The only horse that didn’t go to Cheltenham here is HANDSTANDS and that makes him a firm selection. His form is strong too having beat subsequent Arkle winner Jango Baie to win the Scilly Isles at Sandown when last seen. He has won 3 from 4 over fences now and remains open to further improvement. This track should suit perfectly and if he jumps like he did the last day he will be hard to beat.

Caldwell Potter came good at the Cheltenham Festival and deserves a crack at the top level off the back of that. He won’t get a soft lead here though as there is plenty of pace on. He could still be the biggest danger though as Dancing City wants it much softer than it is going to be as the ground is drying out all the time.

3
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Handstands
Trainer
Ben Pauling
15/8
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Form -
1116-F111
Age -
6
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11-7
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William Hill Handicap Hurdle
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AINTREE
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14:20 - FRIDAY
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Trends
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9 of the last 11 winners aged 8 or younger
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8 of the last 11 winners carried 11 stone 2 lb or less
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8 of the last 11 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
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6 of the last 11 winners had a run at Aintree before

I thought that was a big run from IMPOSE TOI in defeat in the Coral Cup. He travelled into it strongly as expected and found just the one horse too strong in the shape of Jimmy Du Seuil. He is entitled to tighten up for that run and he still looks handicapped to strike given his unexposed profile. This track and the ground will suit so he has plenty going for him and comes out well on trends too.

Wade Out is prominent in the betting but I see him more of a chaser down the line so he might get a bit tapped for toe. Kopeck De Mee has a point to prove after Cheltenham but could still prove his mark isn’t beyond him. At a bigger price Wreckless Eric looked unlucky at Sandown and could have further progress to come so looks the danger and might be worth a saver.

2
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Impose Toi
Trainer
Nicky Henderson
7/1
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Form -
12/1123-12
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7
Weight -
12-0
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TrustATrader Top Novices’ Hurdle
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AINTREE
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14:55 - FRIDAY
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Trends
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20 of the last 21 winners raced no more than 31 days ago
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14 of the last 21 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
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6 of the last 21 winners won last time out
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12 of the last 24 winners were placed in the top 6 in the Supreme

The Supreme form looks the best on offer so I’m expecting ROMEO COOLIO to take an awful lot of beating. I know Gordon Elliott is struggling for form but that is the only reason I can see as to why people are trying to oppose. He is around 11/8 at the time of writing and that looks more than fair. He has plenty more to come and should prove a cut above this field.

Salvator Mundi was behind him at Cheltenham and could be the one to chase him home here. He needs to settle better as can pull his chance away. Tripoli Flyer obviously skipped Cheltenham so has a chance but he has enough to find to lay a glove on the top two in the betting. Diva Luna is likeable and has been running well in defeat so is another one who could go better than her price suggests at least.

5
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Romeo Coolio
Trainer
Gordon Elliott, Ireland
6/5
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12-51213
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6
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11-7
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Melling Chase
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AINTREE
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15:30 - FRIDAY
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Trends
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18 of the last 21 winners raced within the last 30 days
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18 of the last 21 winners priced 8/1 or shorter
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17 of the last 21 winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
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11 of the last 21 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out

I think this race is quite simple and that JONBON will take a lot of beating. I know I opposed him at Cheltenham but that was with good reason and I actually thought he did well to run on for second after that shocking mistake. He won this race last year and is a cut above anything in this field. He needs to jump better obviously but this flatter track will help him and the ground is no issue at all.

El Fabiolo is second fav in the betting but he has just completely lost his way. He came down again at the DRF and then got turned over at short odds last time. Even with a clear round I’m not sure he’ll be able to serve it up to the favourite. The other pair are out their depth too as Matata will probably go too hard and Protektorat looks on the decline now beat nearly 20 lengths in the Ryanair last month.

2
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Jonbon
Trainer
Nicky Henderson
8/15
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Form -
1211-1112
Age -
9
Weight -
11-10
Draw -
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Topham Handicap Chase
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AINTREE
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16:05 - FRIDAY
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Trends
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19 of the last 21 winners aged 10 or younger
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17 of the last 21 winners didn’t win last time out
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12 of the last 21 winners carried 10 stone 7 lb or less in weight
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No winning favourite in the last 10

The Topham is always fiercely competitive and this year is no different with it 8/1 bar the field at the time of writing. I had a shortlist of 6 but have narrowed it down and decided to play just one horse against the field in the shape of BAD for Ben Pauling. This horse has a progressive profile having won his last two starts and if he takes to this discipline I’m convinced he is still well handicapped to have a big say in the finish. He isn’t the biggest but he is a bold jumper and he reminds me a bit of Bill Baxter who won the race 2 years ago.

Tons of dangers and I can see The Goffer running well for Gordon Elliott. He was an excellent fourth in the Cross Country at Cheltenham last month and I think that form is pretty decent involving Stumptown and Vanillier who both look to have major shouts in the Grand National tomorrow. This trip looks perfect and he has plenty going for him. Others to note include Grandeur D’ame at a big price and Fantastic Lady as well.

18
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Bad
Trainer
Ben Pauling
10/1
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Form -
00-232F11
Age -
6
Weight -
10-10
Draw -
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Oddschecker Sefton Novices’ Hurdle
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AINTREE
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16:40 - FRIDAY
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Trends
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15 of the last 21 winners aged 6 or younger
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11 of the last 21 winners returned 7/1 or bigger
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10 of the last 21 winners won their last race
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2 of the last 21 winners were Irish-trained

I know there are 16 horses heading to post for this but it wouldn’t surprise me if the front pair fought this out. Califet En Vol has looked promising and obviously that form behind The New Lion looks even better now. He should run well but I prefer MISTER MEGGIT who could be quite an exciting horse. He won on the bridle here on hurdles debut back in November and has been put away since. He is sure to improve and I can see him relishing this trip stretching out beyond 3 miles for the first time.

Of the rest Moon Rocket has been running well and should be suited by both this track and the ground so could threaten at a double figure price. Jacob’s Ladder also comes out well on the trends and if Gordon Elliott is among the winners he could be subject to a bit of a gamble come post time.

12
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Mister Meggit
Trainer
Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill
10/3
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Form -
110-1
Age -
7
Weight -
11-8
Draw -
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Hallgarten And Novum Wines Handicap Hurdle
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AINTREE
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17:15 - FRIDAY
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Trends
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8 of the last 11 winners aged between 5 and 7
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1 of the last 11 winners were favourites or joint favourites
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9 of the last 11 winners carried 11 stone 2 lbs or less
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8 of the last 11 winners were rated between 129 and 141

I know Sam Thomas has been a bit quiet recently but CELTIC DINO looks to come here with a massive chance. He went 2 from 3 in bumpers and then won his first two starts over hurdles. He wasn’t disgraced behind Potters Charm at this track on Boxing Day and then didn’t shape badly when third behind Tripoli Flyer at Kempton. He is pitched into a handicap for the first time now and could be off a lenient mark with Dylan Johnston claiming 3lb as well. This big field will suit and if he settles I’m expecting him to go close.

Hamsiyann is a lot better than he looked at Musselburgh. He has been given time since and if bouncing back could be one of the dangers. Diamonds For Luck is on a real roll and is another one I fear especially with Lewis Saunders good value for his 7lb claim. Jack Hyde needs to improve again but is also worth noting in terms of a place bet.

4
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Celtic Dino
Trainer
Sam Thomas
7/1
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Form -
131-1143
Age -
6
Weight -
10-13
Draw -
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